Dr. Maccoby participates in a Weekly Forum on Washington Post.com called "On Leadership". I am compiling all of his responses to the weekly questions here.
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DATE: February 22, 2011 Put yourself in the shoes of an autocratic Middle Eastern leader: Let peaceful protests continue and you could easily wind up out of power, like Egypt's Mubarak. Or get tough with the protests and you'll certainly lose popular and international support. What's the best strategy for holding onto power without harming the country? |
Two ways to stay in power
There are two ways autocratic rulers can hold on to power. Both require support from an army and police, but while one type of autocrat rules by terror, the other mixes fear with hope. Autocrats like Saddam Hussein and Josef Stalin stayed in power by following Machiavelli's advice that it is better for a prince to be feared than loved. The other type of autocrat gains some support by increasing prosperity and promising a democratic future.
An example for the Muslim world is Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who after World War I led his forces to defeat the Allied occupation and the Caliphate which had ruled Turkey. To build an independent secular nation, Ataturk studied the institutions of Western democracies and led a gradual transition to a society with consensual government and an independent judiciary to protect secular human rights. He even invited John Dewey, the guru of progressive education, to advise him on reforming Turkey's schools to promote democracy.
A less attractive autocrat who held onto power with considerable support was Augusto Pinochet. In 1973 he led a brutal military coup against the democratic socialist government of Salvador Allende. Fifteen years later, Chileans voted him out of power in a national plebiscite that re-established democratic institutions. In losing, Pinochet still got 45 percent of the vote, testimony that many people appreciated that he had transformed a sluggish government controlled economy (bureaucrats set prices for all essential products) into a globally integrated growing free market economy.
The U.S. government took an active role in promoting a vote against Pinochet and for democracy. Before the vote in 1988, our ambassador, Harry Barnes, invited me along with other Americans to speak to Chilean business leaders on how democratic institutions strengthen free enterprise and economic development. Now, in this age of information, as autocratic rulers are being challenged by people who have lived in fear, we should welcome movements to overthrow those who rule by terror, but support those who will lead a gradual transition to a democratic society.
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