Dr. Maccoby participates in a Weekly Forum on Washington Post.com called "On Leadership". I am compiling all of his responses to the weekly questions here.
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DATE: April 12, 2010 Nuclear summit: The low-probability problem This week's nuclear summit presents one of those difficult leadership challenge: focusing attention and resources on a low-probability problem that would be disastrous if it occurred. Global warming, 100-year floods, financial meltdowns are other examples. How does a leader fight the natural tendency among followers to put off dealing with what seem like such abstract and complicated threats? |
Inspiration in the face of apocalypse
Although there is no way to calculate a probability that they will happen, the threats to life from global warming and nuclear weapons are real. Responsible national leaders will take them seriously and take action to lower the threats. There has been and will be resistance to leadership initiatives. Some of these have to do with the cost of addressing global warming. President Obama's effort to gain support from the Russians to limit nuclear weapons has been attacked by political opponents on the grounds that our military strength will be weakened.
The public tends to turn off when faced with complicated, scary scenarios. Furthermore, many people don't trust experts or leaders and are relieved to believe the doubters and deniers.
Given this, it's a mistake for leaders just to ratchet up fear of disaster. It only increases the counter-force of denial. Instead, leaders should turn these challenges into opportunities to increase the strength and prosperity of the country.
Limiting carbon fuels that cause global warming by fast tracking the development of alternative energy with solar, wind, nuclear and even more innovative possibilities is one more way of gaining independence from Middle Eastern oil. Building global alliances to limit nuclear weapons strengthens collaboration to pressure Iran and North Korea, to keep other countries from joining an arms race and to keep these weapons from terrorists.
Leaders can easily mobilize followers who experience a disaster, like a hurricane or an attack by terrorists. To mobilize followers to address a disastrous but abstract probability, leaders should offer an inspiring vision, like new technology that provides jobs, gives us cheaper, cleaner energy, and by the way, decreases the threat of global warming.
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